COVID ASSESSMENT. After an increase in the number of cases yesterday compared to the previous Sunday, the first since August 17, the coronavirus report dated Monday October 11 tends to be stable over a week. Are we coming to the end of the drastic fall that began this summer?
The coronavirus epidemic has progressed by 1,120 additional cases on October 11, 2021. This is 2,871 fewer cases than yesterday and 18 fewer than last Monday. After an increase in the number of cases this Sunday, it is therefore a certain stability that seems to be in the balance sheet for this Monday. The 7-day average also goes to 4205 cases recorded daily against 4207 yesterday and the incidence rate to 43.08 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in France currently against 43.51 yesterday. The number of deaths recorded in 24 hours at the hospital is 30 deaths (excluding nursing homes), 22 more than yesterday and 20 less than last Monday.
In hospitals, there are currently 6,729 patients hospitalized for Covid-19 (down 8 patients compared to yesterday) while 1,145 people are in intensive care (+13). Over the past 24 hours, 226 patients have been admitted to hospital, 135 more than the day before and 57 fewer compared to last Monday. 58 intensive care admissions were recorded, 41 more than yesterday and 13 less than last Monday.
Here is the latest official data available on Covid-19 in France according to the daily reports from Public Health France and Data.gouv, based on data from SI-DEP tests, hospital data and feedback from medico-social establishments, including the Ehpad. Many details are necessary to fully understand these figures. They are detailed below the table:
Here is the number of cases of Covid-19, deaths, hospitalizations, resuscitations and healings observed more or less compared to the previous report (generally the day before). Latest data available in France according to the daily reports from Public Health France and Data.gouv:
New cases of covid, test positivity rate, proportion of the population tested … Internet users suggest that you consult the data on the evolution of the epidemic in your town free of charge. See
From daily data on the coronavirus in France, we have developed several curves which allow us to observe the evolution of the virus according to the number of confirmed cases, the number of hospitalizations and patients in intensive care, the number of deaths in hospital and total deaths and the number of returns home, assimilated to cures.
For each graph, the curve represents the total (eg: total of cases, current hospitalizations) while the bars correspond to daily changes (balances of hospitalizations each day, new deaths, etc.).
Details on the number of cases: Public Health France specifies that “the data can be very variable depending on the screening activities (reduction in activities on weekends for example) and the time taken to return the results” (generally 24 to 48 hours). Several changes in the method of counting positive tests also affected the counting of cases:
- The government and Public Health France changed their method of collecting data on test results in mid-May 2020, with the SI-DEP project. The figures recorded before and after May 13, 2020 are therefore not completely comparable. Both the quantity and the nature of the tests carried out have changed considerably. From a few thousand tests, France went to more than 1 million tests each week then to 2 million at the beginning of November, inevitably impacting the figures. In addition, at the height of the crisis in March / April 2020, the tests mainly concerned seriously ill people, generally admitted to hospital, putting aside all patients with no or few symptoms. The actual number of Covid-19 cases in France was therefore quite significantly higher than the estimated number of confirmed cases during this period.
- Since mid-November 2020, the number of positive tests includes, in addition to PCR tests, the results of antigen tests.
- A correction of duplicates was made by public health France on May 20, 2021. While there were more than 5.9 million cases in France since the start of the epidemic, this figure has been revised to nearly 5.57 million, or 348,846 fewer cases. A very visible correction on the curve above. Others “incidents” on the flow of data have been reported several times by Public Health France.
Clarification on hospitalizations: We must clearly distinguish here the evolution of the total number of patients hospitalized at an instant T and new hospitalizations, in other words new admissions to the hospital each day (gross). In one case, it is a balance, which takes into account admissions, but also discharges from the hospital (cures or death). In the other, we only talk about new admissions to the hospital or intensive care unit for Covid over a day. On weekends, hospital data are sometimes taken from the Géodes site of Public Health France and are not consolidated data.
Clarification on the number of deaths: since the deconfinement of May 2020, Public Health France no longer updates the results in nursing homes on a daily basis. This assessment was reported every week at the end of the summer, then several times a week to finally stabilize in the fall: now the data from nursing homes (cases and deaths) go back once or twice a week. We therefore initially preferred to erase the number of daily deaths in nursing homes so as not to bias the graphs. At the request of several readers, since November 13, we again display the updates of deaths in nursing homes (dark gray bars) which causes artificial peaks during the updates. Errors and data corrections have also been reported on several occasions by Public Health France since mid-March 2020, sometimes leading to overestimates generally followed by negative trends in the number of deaths.
The Ministry of Health also calculates, from the raw data, a series of statistics on the progression of Covid-19 in the country. Four particularly important indicators are presented below: the positivity rate of RT-PCR tests, the incidence rate, the number of effective reproductions and the occupancy rate of intensive care beds. If the first and the last are easily understandable (percentage of positive tests out of the total number of tests carried out and percentage of resuscitation beds occupied according to the initial capacities of the country), the other two deserve a definition.
The incidence rate, represented by the second curve, is considered a key indicator of the virulence of the virus. This is the number of new cases of coronavirus diagnosed by PCR test that have occurred over the past 7 days. This figure is related to the number of inhabitants, ie a rate expressed per 100,000 inhabitants. The reproduction number (R) corresponds to the average number of people infected by a patient. If this figure is greater than 1, it means that a person with Covid-19 is infecting more than one other person on average currently and therefore that the disease is progressing.
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Details on the positivity rate and the incidence rate: Public Health France changed its calculation method on its main indicators which are the incidence rate and the test positivity rate on December 8, 2020. The addition of antigenic tests in the first indicator then mechanically inflated the result of the calculation. . The incidence then went from 86 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in France to more than 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in our curves above. The positivity rate has dropped drastically: while it seemed to be stagnating around 10.7% the previous days, it then fell by more than 4 points. The reason this time comes from the counting of negative tests: if the same person has performed several tests within 60 days and these are negative, each of them is now counted. Previously, if a person tested negative multiple times in a row within 60 days, only the first test was counted. It was only when he tested positive that his situation changed.
Public Health France explained in a press release that this new calculation method is more precise because it takes into account the “prevalence of the virus in the population tested”. “Today, as the epidemic continues, it is common for the same person to perform several tests, especially when the previous ones were negative. In addition, knowledge has evolved and the risk of reinfection, which is today considered very weak but possible after 60 days, must be able to be identified “, writes the health agency.
Many other graphs as well as maps have been produced by scientists and by recognized journals to attempt to observe as closely as possible the trajectory of the coronavirus epidemic in the world and to compare the evolution of Covid-19 in the different countries affected. Among these curves, those developed from data from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, are among the most complete. These data are reproduced in particular by the Financial Times, Google Studio and many others with daily updates. Since mid-April, we have been basing ourselves on the data and graphs presented by the Our World in Data site, a joint project of researchers at the University of Oxford and the NGO Global Change Data Lab. These curves and this map show the number of cases and deaths compared to the population, ie per 1 million inhabitants.
Curve of the number of coronavirus cases per million:
Map of the number of coronavirus deaths per million:
Focusing on the total number of “gross” deaths in each country is indeed questionable, at a time when governments’ management of the pandemic and their results provoke many comparisons as well as lively debates. Reducing the number of deaths to the population is supposed to erase the demographic weight of each country, but on the other hand it does not erase the age pyramid which sometimes presents very significant differences from one country to another.
The other advantage of the curves and maps of the Our World in Data project is that they take into account the time lag in the emergence of the epidemic from one country to another. According to the graphs, the count starts from the first case or the 100th case detected in the territory, or even, for deaths, from the day from which 5 deaths were recorded in the country (day 0 on the x-axis).