Legislative elections this Monday to decide the political future of Justin Trudeau

Justin Trudeau is playing big this Monday. Called to the polls in advance, Canadians will decide who will form the next government, during legislative elections with an uncertain outcome. The vote is expected to separate the Liberal Prime Minister, who is aiming for a third term, and moderate Conservative Erin O’Toole.

For this very close race, voters in Newfoundland and Labrador, on the Atlantic coast, will be the first to vote on Monday since 8:30 a.m. (1 p.m. in Paris). In contrast, as Canada spans six time zones, the last voters to drop a ballot will be those in British Columbia, a province on the Pacific Coast, where offices will close at 7 p.m. (02 hours Tuesday).

Difficult polls for the Prime Minister

The 36-day blitz ended as it started: with a speech by the outgoing Prime Minister calling on Canadians to give him a new term. He called a snap election in mid-August to try to win back the majority he lost two years earlier.

But Justin Trudeau is, according to the polls, losing his bet. The erosion of power is being felt, the “Trudeaumanie” of 2015 seems far away… it peaks at around 31% of voting intentions, at the same level as its rival Erin O’Toole, still unknown to the general public there is little. As in 2019, this “absolutely total suspense” makes analysts say that “the majority seems very complicated to achieve for anyone”.

Towards an alliance with small parties?

Sunday, Justin Trudeau multiplied on the last day of the campaign, making stops from east to west of the country. Erin O’Toole, who was in the greater Toronto area where he is running on Sunday, promised the Canadiens to be the revival and campaigned steadfastly in the center.

The approximately 27 million Canadians aged 18 and over eligible to vote are called upon to elect the 338 members of the House of Commons. If neither of the two major parties which have alternated in power since 1867 is able to obtain a majority of the seats, the winner will have to compose a minority government. In this case, the future Prime Minister will have to collaborate with the smaller parties, such as the New Democratic Party (NDP, left), of Jagmeet Singh, credited with nearly 20% of the voting intentions or the Bloc Québécois, an independentist formation led by Yves-François Blanchet. The last major party in the running, the Greens of Annamie Paul struggled to get their message of a climate emergency, themselves fighting for their survival due to problems of unity, image and finances.

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