Posted on Sep 20, 2021, 11:24 AMUpdated on Sep 20, 2021, 3:22 PM
The fourth wave of Covid-19 is behind us, all indicators are green, and there is no doubt that the strong increase in vaccination coverage and the implementation of the health pass have something to do with it. Now that the epidemic seems under control and the population is largely immune to the coronavirus, the noose could loosen on the unvaccinated, especially since the tests will pay off from mid-October.
Also, Emmanuel Macron considered lifting “certain constraints as soon as sanitary conditions allow” on September 16 and said he was ready to “lift the pass where the virus is hardly circulating”. “There is a reflection on the way in which we can adapt the rules, either the health pass, perhaps others, to the local situation and to the evolution of the local situation”, confirmed the spokesperson of the Gabriel Attal government on Sunday. A defense council is also scheduled for Wednesday.
Overall, it is difficult to envisage a relaxation of the sanitary pass in Provence-Alpes-Côtes-d’Azur (PACA) and in the other departments of the Mediterranean coast, where the fourth wave was the most violent and where, despite the recession, the incidence rate remains high. This is also the case, to a lesser extent, in Île-de-France and Alsace-Moselle, as well as in part of the Rhône-Alpes departments.
Conversely, if there is a relaxation of the health pass, some departments seem to be able to claim it. Lower Normandy, Creuse, Corrèze, Cantal, Somme, Aisne, Nièvre and Saône-et-Loire have the double characteristic of seeing the incidence drop sharply, while the circulation of the virus is already very weak.
It remains to be seen what will be the easing conditions adopted by the government. Since the start of the epidemic, the alert threshold has been set at 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Thirty-five departments are currently below this threshold. However, during confinements and deconfinements, this bar was not always used as a cursor for reinforcing / relaxing health constraints.
The overseas territories no doubt excluded from the easing
In addition, for the overseas departments, a relaxation of the health pass is more than unlikely. If Mayotte or Reunion are experiencing a fairly favorable incidence rate and an evolution of contaminations, vaccination coverage is still very low.
Even in these two departments, where vaccination coverage is the most advanced in overseas territories, less than two-thirds of the population eligible for vaccination have received at least one dose of vaccine. In Guadeloupe, Guyana and Martinique, just over a third of people aged 12 and over have been vaccinated. By comparison, more than four-fifths of the eligible population has been vaccinated nationwide.
What flexibilities are possible?
As a reminder, the health pass currently applies to all adults of age as well as employees in the sectors concerned by the obligation of the pass. From September 30, it will be extended to all over 12 years old. If the current law allows its application until November 15, a new law to extend the health pass will be presented on October 13 in the Council of Ministers.
Where relaxations are highly improbable is in places where wearing a mask and respecting physical distancing are difficult, if not impossible. These are the places most at risk. These are mainly bars and restaurants, sports halls and nightclubs.
Conversely, other places seem more appropriate for lifting the obligation of the health pass, such as museums and libraries where there are rarely dense crowds or even seated events such as cinema screenings or plays. theater. Wearing a mask is also compulsory.