It is EDF which says it, and even wrote it in its contribution to the consultation of RTE on the electricity mix in 2050. Even by building 14 new EPR in France as well as some SMR, the future small modular reactors, and in extending certain existing reactors beyond 60 years, by 2050 nuclear power will not be able to provide more than 50% of the electricity that we will consume. RTE’s consumption scenarios for this deadline are based on 650 TWh, at more or less 100 TWh depending on the pace of electrification of the economy, including hydrogen, to replace fossil fuels. The low version requiring a significant effort of energy sobriety. The Energy and Climate Directorate is working on a demand of around 720 TWh.
To meet it while achieving the objective of carbon neutrality for France in 2050, set by the energy and climate law of November 2019, EDF estimates that this timeframe will have to have an electricity production mix based on 150 to 235 gigawatts (GW) of renewable electricity (hydro, solar and wind power), compared to around 53 GW currently, and 30 to 50 GW of nuclear power. However, EDF warns that having 50 GW of nuclear power (around 28 GW of new nuclear power and 24 GW of existing nuclear power, estimates RTE) “May appear to be an industrial challenge”.
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